{"id":615,"date":"2017-08-27T16:45:12","date_gmt":"2017-08-27T07:45:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.stechstar.com\/user\/wordpress\/?p=615"},"modified":"2017-08-27T16:49:04","modified_gmt":"2017-08-27T07:49:04","slug":"survivorship-bias-%ec%83%9d%ec%a1%b4%ec%9e%90-%ed%8e%b8%ed%96%a5%ec%9d%98-%ec%98%a4%eb%a5%98","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.stechstar.com\/user\/wordpress\/survivorship-bias-%ec%83%9d%ec%a1%b4%ec%9e%90-%ed%8e%b8%ed%96%a5%ec%9d%98-%ec%98%a4%eb%a5%98\/","title":{"rendered":"Survivorship Bias (\uc0dd\uc874\uc790 \ud3b8\ud5a5\uc758 \uc624\ub958)"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Survivorship Bias<\/h1>\n

(\uc0dd\uc874\uc790 \ud3b8\ud5a5\uc758 \uc624\ub958)<\/h1>\n
\n

PUBLISHED JULY 27, 2017 BY ANDREW<\/p>\n

\"C1Bh6UwUAAA5k41.jpg\"<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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2\ucc28 \uc138\uacc4\ub300\uc804 \ub2f9\uc2dc \ubbf8\uad70 \uc804\ud22c\uae30\uac00 \uaca9\ucd94\ub418\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \uc904\uc774\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc804\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \ub3cc\uc544\uc628 \uc804\ud22c\uae30\ub4e4\uc758 \uc678\uc0c1\uc744 \ubd84\uc11d\ud558\uc5ec \ucde8\uc57d \ubd80\ubd84\uc744 \ubcf4\uac15\ud558\ub294 \uacc4\ud68d\uc744 \uc138\uc6e0\ub2e4\uace0 \ud55c\ub2e4. \ubd84\uc11d \uacb0\uacfc \ube44\ud589\uae30\uc758 \uc678\uc0c1 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84\uc774 \ub0a0\uac1c \ubc0f \uaf2c\ub9ac \ubd80\ubd84\uc5d0 \uc9d1\uc911\ub418\uc5b4 \uc788\uc5c8\uace0, \uc774\uc5d0 \ub2f9\uc5f0\ud788 \ud574\ub2f9 \ubd80\ubd84\uc5d0 \ucd94\uac00 \uc7a5\uac11\uc744 \uc124\uce58\ud558\ub824 \ud558\ub294\ub370 \ubd84\uc11d\uc744 \ucd1d\uad04\ud55c \uc5f0\uad6c\uc6d0\uc774 \ub2f9\uc7a5 \uc870\uc885\uc11d\uacfc \uc5d4\uc9c4 \ubd80\ubd84\uc744 \uc9d1\uc911 \ubcf4\uc644\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \ub72c\uae08\uc5c6\ub294 \uc8fc\uc7a5\uc744 \ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \ud55c\ub2e4. \uadf8\uc758 \ubd84\uc11d\uc5d0 \uc758\ud558\uba74 \ube44\ud589\uae30\uc758 \uac01 \ubd80\ubd84\ub4e4\uc774 \uc801\uad70\uc758 \ucd1d\ud0c4\uc5d0 \uc190\uc0c1\uc744 \uc785\uc744 \ud655\ub960\uc774 \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c\ub370, \uc870\uc885\uc11d\uacfc \uc5d4\uc9c4 \ubd80\ubd84\uc5d0 \ucd1d\ud0c4\uc758 \ud754\uc801\uc774 \uc5c6\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uadf8 \ubd80\ubd84\uc774 \uc801\uad70\uc5d0 \uc758\ud574 \uc190\uc0c1\uc744 \ubc1b\uc73c\uba74 \uce58\uba85\ud0c0\ub97c \uc785\uace0 \ub3cc\uc544\uc624\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud588\ub2e4\ub294 \uc99d\uac70\ub77c\ub294 \uac83. \ub9cc\uc57d \uc774 \ud6cc\ub96d\ud55c \uc5f0\uad6c\uc6d0\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\uc5c8\uc73c\uba74 \ud3b8\ud5a5\ub41c \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ubd84\uc11d\uc73c\ub85c \uc4f8\ub370 \uc5c6\ub294 \uacf3\uc5d0 \ub450\uaebc\uc6b4 \uac11\ud310\uc744 \ub367 \ub308 \ubed4 \ud588\ub358 \uc774 \uc0ac\uac74\uc744 \uc77c\ubc18\ud654 \uc2dc\ucf1c \u2018\uc0dd\uc874\uc790 \ud3b8\ud5a5\uc758 \uc624\ub958 (survivorship bias)\u2019\ub77c\uace0 \ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ub098\ub294 \uc774\ub7f0 \ud3b8\ud5a5\uc801\uc778 \uc0ac\uace0\ub97c \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uc2eb\uc5b4\ud55c\ub2e4. \ube44\ud310\uc801 \uc0ac\uace0\uc758 \ud3ed\uc744 \uc881\ud788\uace0 \ucc28\uc120(sub-optimal)\uc758 \uc120\ud0dd\uc740 \ucee4\ub155 \uc544\uc8fc \uadf8\ub987\ub41c \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \ud06c\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc548\ud0c0\uae5d\uac8c\ub3c4 \uc2a4\ud0c0\ud2b8\uc5c5 \uc138\uacc4\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc774\ub7f0 \uc0dd\uc874\uc790 \ud3b8\ud5a5\uc758 \uc624\ub958\ub97c \uc790\uc8fc \uc811\ud558\uace4 \ud55c\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 \uc131\uacf5\ud55c \uc0ac\ub78c\ub4e4\ub9cc \ubc14\ub77c\ubcf4\uace0 \uadf8\ub4e4\uc758 \uacf5\ud1b5\uc810\ub9cc \ucd94\ub824\uc11c \uc131\uae09\ud558\uac8c \uc77c\ubc18\ud654\ub97c \ud55c\ub2e4\ub358\uac00, \uc18c\uc704 \uc131\uacf5\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \uc790\ubed1\ud558\ub294 \uc0ac\ub78c\ub4e4 \uc911 \u2018\ub098\ub294 \ub178\uc624\uc624\ub825 \uc5f4\uc2ec\ud788 \ud558\ub2e4\ubcf4\ub2c8 \uc798 \ub418\uc5c8\ub294\ub370, \uc5ec\ub7ec\ubd84\ub3c4 \ubd88\ud3c9\ud560 \uc2dc\uac04\uc5d0 \ub178\uc624\uc624\ub825 \ud558\uba74 \uc131\uacf5\ud558\uc2e4 \uc218 \uc788\uc5b4\uc694\u2019 \ud558\ub294 \uc2dd\uc758 \uc870\uc5b8\ub4e4 \ubaa8\ub450 \uc774\ub7f0 \uc624\ub958\uc5d0 \uc18d\ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcfc \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc131\uacf5\ud55c \uc2a4\ud0c0\ud2b8\uc5c5 \ucc3d\uc5c5\uc790\ub4e4 \uc911 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84\uc740 \uc5f4\uc2ec\ud788 \ub178\ub825\ud558\uace0 \uc5f4\uc815\uc744 \uc3df\uc544 \ubd80\uc5c8\uaca0\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ubaa8\ub4e0 \uc5f4\uc2ec\ud788 \ub178\ub825\ud558\uace0 \ubaa8\ub4e0 \uac83\uc744 \uc5f4\uc815\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc3df\uc544 \ubd80\uc740 \ucc3d\uc5c5\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \uc131\uacf5\ud558\uc9c4 \ubabb\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\ub098 (\uc624\ud788\ub824\u2026\ub300\ubd80\ubd84\uc740 \uc2e4\ud328\ud588\uc744\uc9c0\ub3c4).<\/p>\n

\uc131\uacf5\ud55c \ucc3d\uc5c5\uc790\uc640 \ud68c\uc0ac\ub4e4\uc744 \ubd84\uc11d\ud558\uba74 \uadf8\ub4e4\uc758 \ub3c5\ud2b9\ud55c \u2018\uc131\uacf5 \ud328\ud134\u2019\uc774 \ubcf4\uc774\uace0, \ub9c8\ucc2c\uac00\uc9c0\ub85c \uc2e4\ud328\ud55c \ud68c\uc0ac\ub4e4\uc744 \ubcf4\uba74 \uc2e4\ud328\uc5d0 \uae30\uc778\ud55c \uacf5\ud1b5\ub41c \ubb38\uc81c\uc810\ub4e4\uc774 \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4. \ud765\ubbf8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uac83\uc740 \uac00\ub054\uc529 \uc131\uacf5\uacfc \uc2e4\ud328\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce5c \uc774\uc720\uac00 \uac19\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4, \ubb3c \ub4e4\uc5b4 \uc62c \ub54c \ub178 \uc800\uc5b4\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ud0c0\uc774\ubc0d \ub9de\ucdb0 \uc5c4\uccad\ub098\uac8c \uc870\uc9c1\uc744 \uc131\uc7a5\uc2dc\ud0ac \uc218 \uc788\uc5c8\ub358 \uac83\uc774 \uc131\uacf5\uc758 \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uce6d\uc1a1 \ubc1b\ub294 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0, \ub298\uc5b4\ub098\ub294 \uc218\uc694\uc5d0 \ub300\ucc98\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc870\uc9c1\uc744 \uae09\uaca9\ud558\uac8c \uc131\uc7a5 \uc2dc\ucf30\ub294\ub370 \uc774\uac83\uc774 \ud68c\uc0ac\uac00 \ud575\uc2ec \uc5ed\ub7c9\uc5d0 \uc9d1\uc911\ud558\ub294\ub370 \ubc29\ud574\uac00 \ub418\uace0 \ub098\uc05c \uae30\uc5c5 \ubb38\ud654\ub97c \ubc29\uce58\ud558\ub294\ub370 \uac00\uc7a5 \ud070 \uc694\uc778\uc774 \ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uc801 \ubc1b\uae30\ub3c4 \ud55c\ub2e4. \ub354 \ub113\uace0 \ud3b8\ud5a5\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc740 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc640 \ubd84\uc11d\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4\uba74 \uc131\uacf5\uc758 \uc6d0\ub3d9\ub825\uc740 \ube60\ub978 \uc870\uc9c1\uc758 \uc131\uc7a5 \uadf8 \uc790\uccb4\uac00 \uc544\ub2cc, \uadf8 \uc131\uc7a5\uc758 \uc2dc\uc810\uc744 \ud30c\uc545\ud558\uace0 (= \uc131\uacf5\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \uc804\uc81c \uc870\uac74), \uadf8 \ub54c \uc870\uc9c1\uc744 \uc5c4\uc2b5\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc9c0\ub8b0\uac19\uc740 \uc704\ud5d8 \uc694\uc18c\ub4e4\uc744 \uc2e0\uc18d\ud788 \uc2dd\ubcc4\ud558\uace0 \ud6a8\uacfc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub300\ucc98\ud558\ub294 \uac83 \uc784\uc744 (= \uc804\uc81c\uac00 \ub9cc\uc871 \ub418\uc5c8\uc744 \ub54c \uc131\uacf5\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \ud544\uc694 \uc870\uac74) \uc54c \uc218 \uc788\uc744 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc774\ub7f0 \uc624\ub958\ub97c \ud53c\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574\uc120 \ub2a5\ub3d9\uc801\uc778 \uc0ac\uace0 \ub2a5\ub825\uc744 \uac00\uc9c8 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc5b4\ub290 \uc720\uba85\ud558\uac70\ub098 \uc601\ud5a5\ub825 \uc788\ub294 \uc0ac\ub78c\uc774 \uc5b4\ub5a0\ud55c \uc8fc\uc7a5\uc744 \ud55c\ub2e4\uba74 \uadf8\uac83\uc744 \uadf8\ub300\ub85c \ubc1b\uc544\ub4e4\uc774\uc9c0 \ub9d0\uace0 \u2018\uc65c \uadf8\ub7f4\uae4c\u2019\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc9c8\ubb38\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uace0\ubbfc\uc744 \ud574\ubd10\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \uc608\ub4e4 \ub4e4\uc5b4 \u2018\uc2a4\ud0c0\ud2b8\uc5c5\uc740 \ubb34\uc870\uac74 \uc2a4\ud53c\ub4dc\uc774\ub2e4\u2019 \ub77c\ub294 \uc8fc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4\uba74, \uc65c \uc2a4\ud53c\ub4dc\uac00 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uac83\uc778\uc9c0, \uc2a4\ud53c\ub4dc\uac00 \uc65c \uc2a4\ud0c0\ud2b8\uc5c5\uc744 \uc815\uc758\ud558\ub294 \uc7a3\ub300\uac00 \ub418\uc5b4\uc57c \ud558\ub294\uc9c0, \uc2a4\ud53c\ub4dc\ub97c \uc8fc\uc7a5\ud558\ub2e4\uac00 \uc798 \uc548\ud480\ub9b0 \uacbd\uc6b0 (\uc608: \ud14c\ub77c\ub178\uc2a4), \ud68c\uc0ac\ub97c \ucc9c\ucc9c\ud788 \uc313\uc544\uc62c\ub824 \uc131\uacf5\ud55c \uacbd\uc6b0 (\uc608: \uc11c\ubca0\uc774\ubabd\ud0a4) \ub4f1\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uace0\ucc30\uc744 \ud1b5\ud558\uc5ec \uc8fc\uc5b4\uc9c4 \uc8fc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uac1c\uc778\uc801\uc778 \ud310\ub2e8\uc744 \ub0b4\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\uc5b4\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \ub098\ub294 \uac1c\uc778\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \u2018\uc774\ub807\uace0 \uc800\ub807\uac8c \ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc2a4\ud0c0\ud2b8\uc5c5 \uc131\uacf5 \uacf5\uc2dd\uc774\ub2e4\u2019 \ub77c\ub294 \ub258\uc559\uc2a4\uc758 \uc8fc\uc7a5\uc744 \uc811\ud560 \ub54c \ud639\uc2dc \uc788\uc744 survivorship bias\ub97c \uac00\ub824\ub0b4\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc131\uacf5\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud55c \uc2a4\ud0c0\ud2b8\uc5c5\uc758 \uc774\uc57c\uae30\ub97c \ud3c9\uc18c\uc5d0 \uc790\uc8fc \uc811\ud558\ub824\uace0 \ub178\ub825\ud55c\ub2e4. (\uad6c\uae00\uc5d0\uc11c\u00a0startup post mortem<\/a>\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uac80\uc0c9\ud558\uba74 \ub9ce\uc774 \ucc3e\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c.\u00a0Startup Graveyard<\/a>\ub3c4 \uc88b\uc740 \ucc38\uace0 \uc0ac\uc774\ud2b8). \ud329\ud2b8\uccb4\ud06c\uc758 \uc2b5\uad00\ud654 (\uc704\ud0a4\ud53c\ub514\uc544 \ubc0f \uad6c\uae00 \uac80\uc0c9\uc758 \ud798!), \uc5b8\ub860\uc5d0\uc11c \u2018\uc2a4\ud1a0\ub9ac\ud154\ub9c1\u2019\uc758 \uc6a9\uc774\ud568\uc744 \ubaa9\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc77c\ubc18\ud654\ud55c \uc774\uc57c\uae30\ub4e4\uc758 \uc228\uc740 \u2018\ub4b7 \uc774\uc57c\uae30\u2019 \ud30c\uc545 \ub4f1 \uc5ed\uc2dc \ud3b8\ud5a5\uc801\uc778 \uc0ac\uace0\ub97c \uadf9\ubcf5\ud558\ub294\ub370 \ud070 \ub3c4\uc6c0\uc774 \ub41c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc815\uc2e0 \ucc28\ub9ac\uace0 \uba40\uca61\ud55c \ub0a0\uac1c\uc5d0 \ucd94\uac00 \uc7a5\uac11\uc744 \uc124\uce58\ud558\ub294 \uc0bd\uc9c8 \ud558\uc9c0 \ub9d0\uc790.<\/p>\n

[\ucd9c\ucc98] http:\/\/www.andrewahn.co\/silicon-valley\/survivorship-bias\/<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Survivorship Bias (\uc0dd\uc874\uc790 \ud3b8\ud5a5\uc758 \uc624\ub958) PUBLISHED JULY 27, 2017 BY ANDREW 2\ucc28 \uc138\uacc4\ub300\uc804 \ub2f9\uc2dc \ubbf8\uad70 \uc804\ud22c\uae30\uac00 \uaca9\ucd94\ub418\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \uc904\uc774\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc804\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \ub3cc\uc544\uc628 \uc804\ud22c\uae30\ub4e4\uc758 \uc678\uc0c1\uc744 \ubd84\uc11d\ud558\uc5ec \ucde8\uc57d \ubd80\ubd84\uc744 \ubcf4\uac15\ud558\ub294 \uacc4\ud68d\uc744 \uc138\uc6e0\ub2e4\uace0 \ud55c\ub2e4. \ubd84\uc11d \uacb0\uacfc \ube44\ud589\uae30\uc758 \uc678\uc0c1 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84\uc774 \ub0a0\uac1c \ubc0f \uaf2c\ub9ac \ubd80\ubd84\uc5d0 \uc9d1\uc911\ub418\uc5b4 \uc788\uc5c8\uace0, \uc774\uc5d0 \ub2f9\uc5f0\ud788 \ud574\ub2f9 \ubd80\ubd84\uc5d0 \ucd94\uac00 \uc7a5\uac11\uc744 \uc124\uce58\ud558\ub824 \ud558\ub294\ub370 \ubd84\uc11d\uc744 \ucd1d\uad04\ud55c \uc5f0\uad6c\uc6d0\uc774 \ub2f9\uc7a5 \uc870\uc885\uc11d\uacfc […]<\/p>\n

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<\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-615","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-11"],"a3_pvc":{"activated":true,"total_views":1823,"today_views":0},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.stechstar.com\/user\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/615","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.stechstar.com\/user\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.stechstar.com\/user\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.stechstar.com\/user\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.stechstar.com\/user\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=615"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.stechstar.com\/user\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/615\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":618,"href":"https:\/\/www.stechstar.com\/user\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/615\/revisions\/618"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.stechstar.com\/user\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=615"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.stechstar.com\/user\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=615"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.stechstar.com\/user\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=615"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}